Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
